The severity of heatwaves in the Sultanate of Oman is projected to increase in the future under all emission scenarios as per the third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) report to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The report states that heatwaves are likely to become more frequent and intense, and heatwave days are projected to increase by 20-40 percent by 2050 under a high-emissions scenario.
On Tuesday, several places in the Sultanate of Oman reported temperatures around 45°C. These places include Ibri, Bidiyah, Samail, Mahdha, Fahud, Al Buraimi, Muscat, Nizwa and Haima.
“Heatwaves and rising temperatures are already affecting Oman’s human health, agriculture, and infrastructure through increased heat stress, higher cooling demand and grid loads, and potential impacts on crops and livestock. Combined with rainfall variability and water scarcity in a groundwater-dependent, arid setting, these trends heighten risks to socio-economic stability and essential services.
Heat extremes are already evident in Oman. In June 2018, Quriyat recorded a 24-hourminimum temperature of 42.6°C, indicating intensifying heat stress conditions.18 Increasing heat extremes present growing risks to public health, outdoor labor productivity, agriculture and livestock, and energy systems due to rising cooling demand and peak grid loads.
Projections under higher-emissions pathways indicate further intensification of heat extremes, including increases in the frequency, duration, and severity of very hot days and warm nights.
Oman’s public health sector is increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards.
Extreme events, including flooding and intense rainfall, heatwaves, and associated service disruptions, can increase injuries and heat-related illnesses, aggravate respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, and elevate risks linked to vector-borne disease transmission.
Dust and blowing-dust events are also a growing concern in the region; national meteorological awareness materials note direct health impacts, including increased respiratory illnesses.
Under high-emissions pathways, these risks intensify. Oman’s First Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1) summarizes SSP5-8.5 projections indicating that by 2100, temperatures could approach or exceed human survivability thresholds under certain conditions, with daily maximum temperature anomalies of up to approximately 6.5°C and potential peak temperatures of around 52.06°C in Al Dhahirah, alongside a sharp increase in extremely hot days – 45°C- including approximately 110.65 additional hot days annually in Al Dhahirah with comparable increases projected for Al-Dakhiliyah, Al-Sharqiyah, and Dhofar.
Projections underline the need to prioritize protective measures for vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly, and individuals with preexisting health conditions, through heat-health preparedness, risk communication, and strengthened health surveillance and response systems.
The report serves as the nation’s primary policy document, outlining Oman’s climate targets and mitigation measures through to 2035.
It articulates the country’s strategic direction in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing climate adaptation and resilience, and advancing sustainable development in alignment with the objectives of Oman Vision 2040 and the national goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
The NDCs are benchmarked against the base year 2024, with total greenhouse gas emissions recorded at approximately 93.6 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent.
